A Positive Model of Departure Time Choice under Road Pricing and Uncertainty
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper develops a novel positive model for departure time choice under road pricing and uncertainty at the individual levels, and analyzes the consequent system-level dynamic properties. The proposed modeling framework avoids assumptions of substantial rationality, and focuses on how individuals actually make decisions. Bayesian learning, knowledge updating, search, and decisionmaking under uncertainty are modeled in the framework. Then the time-dependent departure patterns along with other system performance are investigated in a series of agent-based simulation experiments. How individuals actually choose departure time under various supplyand demand-side uncertainty scenarios are explored as to their effect on system performance and its dynamic properties.
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